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2017年職稱英語考試理工類B閱讀判斷練習題
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El Nino (厄爾尼諾現象)
While some forecasting methods had limited SUCCESS predicting the 1997 E1 Nino a few months in advance, the Columbia University researchers say their method can predict large E1 Nino events up to two years in advance. That would be good news for governments, farmers and others seeking to plan for the droughts and heavy rainfall that E1 Nino can produce in various parts of the world.
Using a computer the researchers matched sea-surface temperatures to later E1 Nino occurrences between 1980 and 2000 and were then able to anticipate E1 Nino events dating back to1857, using prior sea-surface temperatures. The results were reported in the latest issue of the journal Nature.
The researchers say their method is not perfect, but Bryan C. Weare. a meteorologist at the University of California, Davis, who was not involved in the work, said "itsuggestsE1 Nino is indeed predictable."
"This will probably convince others to search around more for even better methods."said Weare. He added that the new methodmakes it possible to predict E1 Nino at long lead times. Other models also use sea-surface temperatures, but they have not looked as far back because they need other data, which is only available for recent decades, Weare said.
The ability to predict the warming and cooling of the Pacitic is of immense importance. The 1997 E1 Nino, for example, caused an estimated$20 billion in damage worldwide, offset by beneficial effects in other areas, said David Anderson, of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in Reading, England. The 1877 E1 Nino, meanwhile, coincided with a failure of the Indian monsoon and a famine that killed perhaps 40 million in India and China, prompting the development of seasonal forecasting, Anderson said.
When E1 Nino hit in 1991 and 1997,200 million people were affected by flooding in China alone, according to a 2002 United Nations report.
While predicting smaller E1 Nino events remains tricky, the ability to predict larger ones should be increased to at least a year if the new method is confirmed.
E1 Nino tends to develop between April and June and reaches its peak between December and February. The warming tends to last between 9 and 12 months and occurs every two to seven years.
The new forecasting method does not predict any major E1 Nino events in the next two years,although a weak warming toward the end of this year is possible.
1. The method used by the Columbia University researchers can predict E1 Nino a few months in advance.
A. Right
B. Wrong
C. Not mentioned
2. The Columbia University researchers studied the relationship between the past EI Nino occurrences and sea-surface temperatures.
A. Right
B. Wrong
C. Not mentioned
3. The Columbia University researchers are the first to use sea-surface temperatures to match the past EI Nino occurrences.
A. Right
B. Wrong
C. Not mentioned
4. Weare's contribution in predicting E1 Ninowas highly praised by other meteorologists.
A. Right
B. Wrong
C. Not mentioned
5. According to a Chinese report, the flooding in China caused by E1 Nino in 1991 and 1997 affected 200 million Chinese people.
A. Right
B. Wrong
C. Not mentioned
6. It takes about eight months for E1 Nino to reach its peak.
A. Right
B. Wrong
C. Not mentioned
7. A special institute has been set up in America to study El Nino.
A. Right
B. Wrong
C. Not mentioned
答案與解析：
1. B。題干：哥倫比亞大學的研究者使用的方法可以提前幾個月預測厄爾尼諾現象。利用句子中的特征詞Columbia University researchers和a few months in advance作為答案線索，這樣發現答案相關句：“While some forecasting methods had limited SUCCESS predicting the 1997 E 1 Nino a few months in advance，the Columbia University researchers say their method can predict large E l Nino events up to two years in advance.”問題句說“提前幾個月”，而原文說“最遠能提前到兩年”，因此可見問題句的內容中有與原文不一致的地方，因此判斷該句“不正確”。
2. A。題干：哥倫比亞大學的研究者研究了過去厄爾尼諾的發生與海平面溫度的關系。利用句子中的特征詞El Nino occurrences和sea.surface temperatures作為答案線索，這樣發現答案相關句：“Using a computer the researchers matched sea.surface temperatures to later E1 Nino occurrences between 1980 and 2000…”該句的含義基本上與問題句的內容一致，還需要對信息1進行判斷：辨別the researchers是否就是“The Columbia University researchers”，而前文中出現的就是“The Columbia University researchers”，因此判斷信息1和信息2的內容都在原文中有呼應的內容，因此判斷該句的說法正確。
3. C。題干：哥倫比亞大學的研究者首先將海平面溫度與過去厄爾尼諾的發生聯系起來。題干中出現的特征詞(the first)是判斷該句正誤的關鍵。利用該詞作為答案線索，發現文章中沒有出現這個詞。因為該旬是概括總結句，因此再利用句子出現的核心結構sea—surface temperatures和the past El Nino occurrences作為答案線索，發現涉及這兩個結構的句子所表達的句意都與問題句的內容無關，因此判斷問題句的說法為“未提及”。
4. C。題干：Weare在預測厄爾尼諾方面的貢獻受到其他氣象學家的大力稱贊。利用句子中出現的特征詞Weare作為答案線索，發現答案相關句都沒有講述是否Weare在預測厄爾尼諾現象方面做出了貢獻，也沒有提到他的貢獻是否得到了其他氣象學家的高度贊揚。
5. B。題干：根據中國的報告，1991年和1997年因為厄爾尼諾引起的洪災危及2億人。將句子中出現的特征詞Chinese report，in 1991 and l997和200 million Chinese people作為答案線索，發現答案相關句：“When El Nino hit in l991 and 1997.200 million people were affected by flooding in China alone，according to a 2002 United Nations report.”由該句可知 是根據聯合國的報告而非中國的報告，故該句的內容與問題句的內容不一致。
6. A。題干：厄爾尼諾達到其峰值需要八個月的時間。該問題句內容和結構都較簡單，句子中出現了一個數字(八個月)，因此猜測對這個數字的辨別是解題的關鍵。借助eight months和句子中的核心詞peak作為答案線索，這樣找到答案相關句：“El Nino tends todevelop between April and June and reaches its peak between December and February.”借助該句含義可以推出El Nino需要大約八個月達到峰值。
7. C。題干：美國建立了一所特別的研究院來研究厄爾尼諾現象。利用句子中出現的核心詞A special institute和America作為答案線索，發現文章中根本就沒有提到“在美國建立一所特別的研究院”，因此該句為“原文未提及”。
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